How to Make a Successful Investment Decision?


In our earlier blogs, we have mentioned that the market valuation is expensive, market valuation is expensive but now after the market crash, the market valuation has become moderate.  We have already mentioned how to check the market valuations in our earlier blogs, do check it out. So Nifty PE is an indicator of the market valuation. If we analyze the history of Nifty till date we’ll find that the Nifty PE has always moved in the range of 10 to 30. Due to the recent market crash, the Nifty PE has now reached the mark of 17. Hence, the market valuation has become moderate.


So what to do next? If you want to become a successful investor then you will have to make a pyramid of your investments. So currently you can increase your investments here. Now consider if you wish to invest Rs. 10,000 in the market and if you had invested only Rs. 1,000 to Rs. 2,000 when the market was at a higher valuation then now is the time to increase your investment there. So you can now invest Rs. 2,000 to Rs. 4,000 in the market. Later, if the market valuation again falls down, you can again increase your investments there.


Instead of predicting the market, we should focus on analyzing the market valuation. Currently, the market valuation is expensive, so where can we invest? You can invest in companies having a sustainable competitive advantage, those companies that are into non-cyclical business, and also those companies that are consistently growing along-with having an excellent CAGR.


We had started this channel for educational purposes, to spread financial literacy amongst the masses not to give out tips because we know tips are provided in restaurants. We want people to educate themselves and to analyze the market on their own rather than depending on tips.


Coming back to the point, non-cyclical businesses are those that are less affected by the impacts of the economy. The businesses that have performed well in the past ten years despite the economy being in any condition, if we invest in a step-by-step in such companies then we can earn good returns here. Here, we would take a moment to appreciate all our Personal Portfolio Advisory clients and followers who have showed faith in us and followed our methodology while investing, because of that even when the market had crashed, their portfolios still stood strong there.


Let us see an example. A non-cyclical company which is into manufacturing of biscuits and in India if we analyze there are mainly two companies that have a monopoly in this sector, amongst those two ones is Parle-G which is not listed and the other is Britannia Industries. So with 38% to 39% market penetration, Britannia is one of the market leaders in this sector. If we look at the track record of the past 10 years; then after compounding the company has been able to give more than 10% of returns on a yearly basis. So if you invest in such companies in a step-by-step manner as per the market valuation then in the long-run you can earn excellent returns. Also, there is a possibility that if the market falls then these shares may also see a slight fall. Hence, it is important to analyze different companies and then invest in a step-by-step manner. Don’t forget, diversification of portfolio will let you achieve more returns. This was all about investing.


Now if you wish to make good returns via trading. So here we would like to give a disclaimer that in this current situation we are not buying any shares. If you want to become a successful investor then first you should check the market valuation then the market direction and then trade in that share which is in a strong uptrend. According to us, currently, we find no strong uptrend in any company as of now. Hence, as a trader, we are not having any position in the market as of now.


Recently, when the market has witnessed a fall, there has been an uptrend in the Dollar. Recently, we had mentioned that at first Dollar might have a target of reaching Rs. 75 and later Rs. 80 till the time it is above the level of Rs. 68.  So then in the market initially; the Dollar reached the mark of Rs. 75 then it faced a correction and now till it is above the mark of Rs. 70, in the upcoming period it may go up to Rs. 80 as well. So if have earned good profit from the share market earlier and can afford to take a risk, only then you can trade here. Without any prior analysis, one should not trade here at all.


Thus, we have mentioned what should you currently do while investing as well as trading in the market. Also, due to the corona pandemic; most of us are working from home so we should make use of this productive time to increase our learning and knowledge because if learning will increase then our earning will increase as well. So if you wish to learn more about the share market then we have our app Aryaamoney where there are two powerful training programs Gateway to Wealth and Smart Investor training program. Do check that out.


Until next time…


Happy Trading, Happy Investing!!!


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