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Stock Market Analysis – June 2020

 

By the end of January, there was a huge downfall in the US as well as Indian share market. Now, as the lockdown has ended, the US as well as the Indian share market is witnessing a V-shaped recovery. So now, how to invest as well as trade here? Let us understand this in our today’s blog.

 

Due to lockdown, the unemployment rate in the USA had reached a peak breaking all the records of the past 70 years. But during the last week, as soon as the lockdown was over, the rate of unemployment fell which seems as good news. And because of this the US market has witnessed a bullish trend during the last Friday and hence; it also gives us a positive signal for the upcoming week ahead.

 

From the point from where the US market fell during the lockdown, it has now picked up and shows a great V-shaped recovery curve. Following in the similar footsteps, even the Indian share market is witnessing a V-shaped recovery too.

 

So how do we invest now? We have already talked about this a couple of times before that if you wish to become a successful trader and investor in the share market; you first need to check the market valuation. Now, how to analyze this market valuation? For that we have already spoken about this in our previous blogs. So we should first and foremost always check the price-earning ratio (PE) of the Nifty which is the index of the Indian share market consisting of the top 50 companies. If we check the history of the Indian share market we’ll discover that the Indian share market has a blood pressure. The Indian share market PE has always moved in the range of 10 and 30. So whenever the market’s PE is between 10 & 15 the market valuation is low. Similarly, whenever the market’s PE goes beyond 25 the market valuation becomes expensive.

 

Previously during the last 2 years we have always spoken about how the market valuation is expensive and whenever the market valuation is expensive; we are supposed to invest less in the market. Now, due to the corona virus pandemic, the market valuation had come down to 18 from the previous high of 28. So the market valuation had become moderate. And at that time increasing your investments would’ve been the right thing to do to become a successful investor in the market.

 

If you invest in various companies based on the share market’s index valuation in a step by step manner, then you surely can become a successful investor in the market. But where and in which companies do we invest? We had previously mentioned about this. In the share market there are 2 types of companies; cyclical and non-cyclical. Now, cyclical includes Auto, Metal, Oil, Bank, and Gas. Here in these cyclical companies, you can earn via trading. Coming to Non-cyclical, means the companies that have a sustainable competitive advantage who seem to have a monopoly in their areas of work as well as they have a pricing power under their control and they are earning good returns on their capital employed then here if you invest in such companies for the long-term in a step by step manner, then you can surely earn excellent returns here.

 

Now how do we check the share market valuation on a timely basis? You all are aware of our app ‘Aryaamoney’, so in this app we update the Nifty PE Ratio on a daily basis which you can always refer to and accordingly invest in companies having sustainable competitive advantage and earn good returns.

 

Similarly, if you wish to earn good returns via mutual fund investments then we have provided information for that as well in our previous blogs. In which mutual funds should you invest, how to invest, etc. we have covered it all? Do check it out.

 

Now what do we do about the recent recovery which the market has witnessed? Here we’ll again do the same thing. First, check the market valuation. Along with it, you can also check the interest rates. We will talk about this in our upcoming blogs.

 

So why are we talking about interest rates? Interest rates work as a gravity this is a statement coming from none other than Mr. Warren Buffet himself. Currently, the valuation of the Indian share markets i.e. the Price Earning ratio is around 24 which is moderately high. So if this crosses the mark of 25 then the market valuation will become expensive. Currently it is moderately high; it may become even more expensive. If the market is at 25 PE it means that if you are investing Rs 25 then you are earning Rs 1. That means you are earning around 4% here. If you compare this returns with that of the safe asset class, here safe asset class means for e.g. a bank.  So a safe asset class like a bank offers you a return of close to 6% which is higher than the returns you are currently getting by investing the share market.  This means that currently the market has reached a moderately high valuation.

 

So bank is offering you a return of say 6% whereas the share market is offering you a return of 4% as of now but in the upcoming near future if there is a growth in the earnings of the companies then the market which seems expensive now may not seem expensive later. For that, there needs to be a growth in the earnings of the company.

 

So is a tremendous growth possible in the near future? The world’s most successful investor Mr. Buffet’s mentor Mr. Benjamin Graham quotes that in the short-run the price fluctuations that occur in the market are just based out of sentiments. While in the long-run these movements follows the corporate earnings.

 

Until our next blog…

 

Happy Trading, Happy Investing!!!

 

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